Thinking about Unanticipated Consequences

A book about why can't we figure out the consequences ahead of time...

Actions have consequences—we all know this—but more and more, it seems that the consequences of some actions are unpredictable and lead to disasters of one kind or another.  But is that really true? 

For instance, you might think that if you release a few innocent, quietly hopping bunnies into the landscape of Australia in 1859, you might think that you’re just providing some game animals for future recreation and enjoyment.  They would remind you of home, beloved England, so far away. 

Of course that’s not the way it worked out.  Just seven years later, hunters would shoot over 14,000 rabbits and not make a dent in the population, and a mere decade after their introduction, hunters would shoot or trap over 2 million of the furry creatures with no effect. 

The effect of the rabbits on Australia was devastating: they became the single most significant factor in native species loss in Australia, primarily because of the loss of natural resources.  Rabbits eat the natural pasture vegetation, and then when that’s gone, in desperation they turn to woody vegetation, including shrubs and small trees.  As those native plants are eaten, the topsoil is left exposed and erodes away rapidly.  Vast tracts of Australian land have eroded away, leaving mostly sterile places that are inhospitable to native species, as well as rabbits, who happily hop to more fertile locations to eat their way across the landscape.  Today, more than 160 years after their introduction and after immense efforts at controlling the leporine flood, the cost to Australia agriculture is around $206 million (AU) per year. 

But can we anticipate the consequences of our actions?  Or is it more that we (as a decision-making species) just aren’t paying enough attention?  Can we reduce the unwanted side-effects of our choices with a little bit of careful thinking?  What would it take to have that kind of insight?

This Substack is my way of thinking through the thought process of anticipating these consequences. But as a book title, Unanticipated Consequences captures the idea that this will be a book that examines many surprising cases of actions and consequences, looks back at how those came to be, and if something couldn’t have been done to mitigate the poor outcomes. 

Come down the rabbit hole with me as we look at how the decisions we make can sometimes go awry… and how we might think about these decisions in a more reasonable way.

And yes, they really should have known that releasing rabbits in Australia was probably a terrible idea…