The Aswan High Dam: positive and negative consequences
Massive projects need a lot of careful analysis about the downstream effects--did that happen in Egypt for the Aswan Dam?
Aswan Dam
Unanticipated consequences come in many forms. Some projects are so big and complicated that you have to make tradeoffs to ensure that something actually gets done in the end. This is the story of the Aswan High Dam in Egypt—easy to describe what it is (a really big dam across the Nile), but with a huge set of consequences. How should you approach any big, complicated project? You don’t want to get stuck in analysis paralysis, but you DO want to consider both the positive and negative effects of the project. The reality is that giant projects (such as massive infrastructure projects) involve a lot of choices about what the effects will be, and in the end, are they mostly the effects you want to see. To further complicate things, egos, pride, and reputation often cloud the decision-making process.
This is the story of the Aswan High Dam, with both its foreseen and unforeseen effects.
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The Nile in northern Africa used to run in a single unbroken stream from its sources in the south to the sea in the north. Of all the water that flows into the Mediterranean, only 20% comes from mighty Lake Victoria in Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya (2100 miles to the south), while 80% of the Nile’s water comes from Lake Tana after first falling as rain in the Ethiopian highlands.
Egypt was historically nourished by these intense summer rains falling in the south, mostly in Ethiopia. Immense amount of water flooded northward carrying with it equally immense amounts of silt, amplifying the lands along the Nile by dropping a load of new dirt that would reinvigorate the farms with new, rich soil.
The Greek historian Herodotus wrote that "Egypt was the gift of the Nile" because the river was an eternal source of fertility for the land. As a giver of soil, it played a crucial role in the development of Egyptian civilization. Since the river overflowed its banks annually and deposited new layers of silt, the surrounding land was remarkably fertile, and came with a nearby source of water. The Ancient Egyptians grew and traded wheat, flax, papyrus and other crops around the Nile. Wheat was a crucial crop in the famine-plagued Middle East creating the basis of a trading system that secured Egypt's diplomatic relationships with other countries, forming long-lasting economic stability.
Pic from Wikipedia – “Path of the Nile” – note that 80% of the Nile’s water comes from Lake Tana in Ethiopia, while the remainer flows from Lake Victoria much farther south.
Aswan is a city just north of the Aswan Dam on the east bank of the Nile at the first cataract—the first place where Egyptians would have to carry their boats around the rapids or laboriously pull them upstream. Historically it was a trading city, a military garrison town, and in Ancient Egypt, it was an important frontier city, a kind of boundary between Egypt and Nubia as well as a source of high-quality stone for temple construction downstream.
“First cataract of the Nile” – the first place where boats need to be portaged or towed upstream. https://www.loc.gov/resource/stereo.1s21710/
Because of the geography (the first cataract was at Aswan), it was the natural and obvious place to build a dam. In the early 1900s, the “old dam” (aka the “low dam”) was built and created a lake just south of Aswan. But the low dam was relatively small its gates were opened to pass the floodwaters with their nutrient-rich sediments, but without retaining any yearly storage. Consequently, it did little to control annual flooding, leaving the Nile to continue dropping silt during the flood season.
Then, in 1952, the new government that formed after the Egyptian Revolution decided to build a high dam at Aswan to control flooding, provide increased water storage for irrigation and generate hydroelectricity. In the eyes of the officials, the high dam was seen as central to Egypt's planned industrialization and offered a chance to increase agricultural output even more. And so it came to pass that the Aswan High Dam (AHD) was built to make Lake Nasser, with a surface area of 5,250 km2 (2,030 sq mi) with a storage capacity of some 132 km3 (32 cu mi) of water. For contrast, Lake Mead in the US southwest, is 640 km2 (247 sq mi) with 32.236 km3 of water (7.7 cubic miles), making Lake Nasser about 8 times larger in area than Lake Mead, with 4 times the water volume.
Building the Aswan Dam was a huge project design to have lots of predicted positive effects—that was the point of building the dam in the first place. But as you might expect with something so massive, it also had more than a few negative and unanticipated consequences.
When analyzing large projects, it’s often not clear how to do the tradeoff analysis. However, it’s the kind of thing you need to do, if only to anticipate what could happen in the future.
The positive effects of building the dam include everything you’d expect from a large dam project, just about everything the designers planned for—the same things that have been used to justify dams around the world for years.
The anticipated positive effects included:
Increased agricultural productivity: By regulating Nile flooding, the Aswan dam and Lake Nasser allows for controlled irrigation, leading to increased crop yields and expanded agricultural land. The reservoir provides a stable water source for irrigation, transforming previously arid land into productive farmland. Year-round irrigation became possible, allowing multiple growing seasons.
Hydroelectric power generation: The dam generates substantial electricity for Egypt—roughly 2.1 billion kilowatt-hours each year
Flood control: The reservoir behind the dam helps control the annual Nile floods. While they have had a positive effect on the country’s agriculture over the millennia by re-depositing new fertile soil, those same floods also wipe out much of the countryside when the waters rise.
Tourism and Recreation: Lake Nasser has become a popular destination for tourists with lots of recreational activities. A new tourism industry arises.
Fishing: The lake created a significant fishing industry. Today, roughly 20,000 tons of fish are harvested from Lake Nasser (although that number is probably a 50% undercount due to black markets and illegal / unreported fishing). Regardless, it’s a huge new source of protein in a desert economy. [Halls]
People have been building dams for centuries, so the positive effects of building a large dam at Aswan were fairly predictable, and even some of the negative consequences were understood. The perpetual question is “Are the positive effects greater than the negative consequences?”
In any project, many of the negative consequences can be anticipated as well. One of the predicted negative consequences that captured the world’s imagination was that the lake would be so large that many of Egypt’s remarkable ancient monuments would be lost forever under the waters of Lake Nasser. The government recognized this as a huge problem and worked towards a non-obvious, completely outrageous, but successful idea.
Moving the monuments: In the late 1960s as the dam was being built, an emergency conservation effort was organized by Egypt with UNESCO to save many—but not all—of the legacy sites. Some smaller temples were given outright to countries that had helped on the salvation project (which is why the Temple of Dendur is now located at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City), but a few others were literally moved to higher ground.
Most famously, the massive temples at Abu Simbel were sawn into pieces, disassembled, and put back together. Between 1964 and 1968, the monument was carefully cut into large blocks (up to 30 tons, averaging 20 tons), dismantled, lifted up the slope of the hill, and reassembled at a point 65 meters higher and 200 meters away from the river.
The main temple at Abu Simbel. P/C Daniel M. Russell
That was an expected consequence that was easy to imagine and with a clear plan of action to remedy the situation. But whenever you flood a massive area, a predicted negative consequence is often that you would have to move more than a few people out of the way of flood waters.
Moving people out of the way: It happens with most large, newly created dam lakes—people who are living in the flood zone need to be moved out of the way. In Lake Nasser’s case, some 100,000 people had to leave their traditional living places to avoid the rising waters, leading to the creation of entirely new cities and towns. Because the new lake extended across the southern Egyptian border into Sudan, some 50,000 to 70,000 Sudanese Nubians were moved from the old town of Wadi Halfa and its surrounding villages to a newly created settlement on the shore of Lake Nasser called New Wadi Halfa. In Egypt, the majority of the Nubians were moved three to ten kilometers from the Nile near Edna and Kom Ombo, 45 kilometers (28 mi) downstream from Aswan in what was called "New Nubia.” [Amer]
Reduced soil fertility: The Nile's natural silt deposition, which enriched downstream agricultural lands, was significantly reduced due to the dam, necessitating increased reliance on artificial fertilizers. This is one of those inevitable tradeoffs that has to be considered whenever a dam is constructed, especially in the case of the Nile, which is famous for its annual soil replenishment action.
Accumulation of sediments in the reservoir: All dams accumulate silt, leading to a decrease in the storage capacity. In the Nile’s case, sediments are accumulating at a rapid pace (around 140 million cubic meters per year--or about 140 Empire State Buildings, or 54 Great Pyramids of Giza). But most of the sediment is accumulating in the far southern stretches of the lake, where it will take many years to become a problem. Still, the Egyptian government has been considering dreding the sediment and carrying it away to create new arable lands. The big problem is that sediments build up slowly over the years and can easily become a massive problem for future generations. [Elba] [Monser]
All these changes were expected. But then there were the unanticipated consequences of building the High Dam.
These unanticipated consequences included:
Coastal Erosion: Before the Aswan High Dam, the Nile carried a load of about 120–160 million tons of sediment to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. [Ehrmann] Without gigatons of the Nile's sediment reaching the Mediterranean each year, the Nile Delta near Alexandria began having severe erosion issues. Without constant replenishment, the coastline where the Nile meets the Mediterranean has begun retreating, threatening communities and agricultural land, losing roughly 1000 acres / year. [Eldeberky]
Loss of Sardine Fishery: Once the Aswan dam went up, the Mediterranean sardine fishery off Egypt's coast collapsed. The nutrients that once flowed from the Nile into the Mediterranean, supported a large marine food web, but those nutrients were trapped behind the dam with the sediments. Egypt’s Mediterranean overall sardine catch, which once averaged 35,000 - 40,000 tons annually, has shrunk by half (or more), largely because the loss of plankton nourished by the silt, has eliminated the sardine population in Egyptian waters. While fishing in Lake Nasser may partly offset the loss of saltwater fish, only the most optimistic estimates would place the eventual catch as high as 15,000 - 20,000 tons. [Olson] [Khalfallah]
Soil Salinization: Without annual flooding to flush the soil, salt began accumulating in agricultural lands. And since the annual flood no longer covered the land in silty water, new irrigation systems had to be set up, leading to inadequate drainage and salt accumulation. Farmers had to use more artificial fertilizers to maintain soil fertility, as they no longer received the natural fertilization from flood sediments. [Hagage]
Waterlogging: With the change in irrigation practices, many agricultural fields needed year-round irrigation. When not done with care, this led to perpetually waterlogged soils, affecting agriculture and building foundations. [Hagage]
Downstream Riverbed Changes: The relatively faster, clearer water released from the dam began eroding the riverbed downstream because it no longer carried sediment but just clear water. This change in the water affected bridge foundations, riverbank stability, and navigation.
Water treatment needed: That increased water clarity, which is wonderful to see, also allows sunlight to penetrate deeper in the Nile. Because of this and the increased presence of nutrients from fertilizers in the water (which were required because the loss of nutrient-rich silt), more algae now grows in the Nile. This in turn requires more water treatment, which increases the costs of drinking water. Few experts had foreseen that water quality in the Nile would actually degrade because of the High Dam. [Schamp]
Ecological disruption: Changes in water flow and sediment levels impacted the aquatic ecosystem of the Nile, affecting fish populations and other aquatic life. Riverine animals, plants, and fish that had evolved to rely on annual floods were left to survive a massive change. Or not. Many species of fish, amphibians, reptiles, and waterfowl have been cut off from their migratory sites in the south. Among other things, the dam contributed to the disappearance of crocodiles from the Nile below the dam.. and an increase of crocodiles in the waters of Lake Nasser. They’ve been pushed way into the south.
But perhaps the biggest worry was that creating huge lake and preventing the annual flushing of waters below Aswan which would lead a potentially huge new disease problem.
Increase in Schistosomiasis: The creation of Lake Nasser and changes in water flow led to an unexpected increase in schistosomiasis. This is a particularly nasty disease caused by parasitic worms in standing water that burrow into your skin, then moving around inside your body to cause a raft of problems including anemia, persistent coughing, shortness of breath, and possibly coughing up blood with headaches. Without the flow of river water to mix things up, the slow and standing water created ideal conditions for the snails that host those parasitic worms, which then shed eggs that turn into larvae that burrow into the skin of people who come in contact with Lake Nasser’s waters. [Othman] Before the Aswan dam was built, the Nile's natural flow patterns (including seasonal floods) would flush away snail populations and their habitats. The controlled flow after dam construction led to more stable water conditions favoring snail proliferation. [Cline]
However, aware that schistosomiasis might explode in case load, the government was motivated to implement the widespread use of the drugs praziquantel and metrifonate. These programs have been highly effective in reducing infection rates. [WHO] And, with the additional income from the dam, the government was able to make investments in sanitation infrastructure and access to safe water sources to reduce human contact with infected water. [El-Sayed]
What led to the decrease in schistosomiasis? It didn’t happen by accident, but by a large country-wide investment in counteracting the disease before things could get bad. This is a superb example of anticipating the consequences and proactively taking care of things before they could get out of hand.
Public Health Interventions: The implementation of the National Schistosomal Control program in 1997 played a crucial role in reducing the prevalence of the disease. [Barakat] This program included: Installation of clean fresh water pumps in villages. Treatment of canals and drainage ditches with copper sulfate to cut down on the number of snails that carried the disease. [Monser]
Mass Drug Administration (MDA): The Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population, in collaboration with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), implemented a schistosomiasis research project starting in 1988, leading to improved large-scale treatments and capacity for research. [Khoby] In 1997, the National Schistosomiasis Control Project was boosted by funding from the World Bank to provide praziquantel mass drug administration in schools and villages. [Barakat] This program is credited with reducing the prevalence of S. mansoni infection from approximately 15% in the overall population in 1993 to 5% by 2006. At same time, the prevalence of S. haematobium infection decreased from 7% in 1993 to 2% in 2002, and then to 1% in 2006. [Fenwick] This MDA approach was a remarkably effective program.
Changes in Snail Populations: The construction of the Aswan High Dam changed the irrigation patterns in the Nile Delta, leading to an improved habitat for Biomphalaria snails as opposed to Bulinus snails, thus reducing the prevalence of S. haematobium. But significant snail infestations were reduced through the wide-spread application of niclosamide.
In an unexpected turn of events, in the mid-1980s a freshwater crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, was introduced to the Nile Delta for aquaculture. Like many other aquacultural creatures, the crayfish escaped confinement and rapidly spread throughout the regions of the Nile, becoming invasive in many regions. By 1996, it was estimated that 4.6 metric tons/year of the crayfish could be harvested from the Nile as cheap protein source. It also became clear that the freshwater crayfish loves to dine out snails, including those that carry schistosomiasis. In an unanticipated positive consequence, it’s quite plausible these crayfish played a role in reducing transmission and making the massive drug treatment plan work well by reducing transmission and re-infection at the same time. [Khalil]
Despite initial fears that the AHD would increase the incidence of schistosomiasis by creating a more suitable habitat for snails and increasing human contact with the water, these large-scale public health interventions and other factors led to a significant decrease in the disease's prevalence.
The Nile River, just downstream of the Aswan High Dam. P/C Daniel M. Russell
Making the choices…
The decision by Egypt to construct the Aswan High Dam (AHD) was a pivotal moment in the country's history, driven by a real need for economic development and national security tied to the reliable management of the Nile River. The point of the dam was to provide long-term protection against both droughts and floods, increase agricultural productivity, generate hydroelectric power, and improve river navigation. But it was an enormous project, raising concerns about potential negative consequences. The ultimate decision to proceed with the construction of the dam involved a complete evaluation of these anticipated benefits and costs.
For centuries, Egypt's agricultural prosperity and the well-being of its population had been at the mercy of the river's unpredictable floods and droughts. Discharge volume could fluctuate dramatically from year to year, ranging from 32 billion to over 100 billion cubic meters annually.
By the mid-20th century, as Egypt's population grew and its hopes for modernization increased, they needed a more reliable and controllable water supply. The idea of a large dam at Aswan offered the most promising solution, as it could provide long-term protection against the Nile’s annual flood cycles. And it worked! The droughts of 1979-1987 had no significant impact on water supply downstream from Aswan due to its storage capacity, and the floods of 1998-2002 would have been catastrophic without the dam's flood protection.
At the time of its construction, the AHD was projected to meet most of Egypt's electrical needs, which was essential for the country's planned industrialization. The dam's potential to fuel economic growth was a significant factor in the decision to build it.
Increased agricultural productivity was an important factor. Before the AHD, agriculture in the Nile Valley and Delta relied on basin irrigation, where fields were flooded annually when the Nile rose, allowing for only one crop per year. The dam’s over-year water storage capacity let the country convert to perennial irrigation, allowing three crop seasons annually and expanding the amount of land that could be cultivated through land reclamation, boosting Egypt's food production and support its growing population. What’s more, the dam's regulation of the Nile's flow improved river navigation year-round, eliminating the grounding of ships during low-flow periods. The creation of Lake Nasser also led to the development of a significant fishery, providing a new source of protein.
But as we’ve learned, for every large project there are the planned-for, positive consequences as well as planned-for negative consequences. One of the most recognized concerns was the flooding of ancient Egyptian monuments in southern Egypt due to waters backing up and creating Lake Nasser. The government acknowledged this as a major problem and, in collaboration with UNESCO, launched an extraordinary international effort to save many of these sites. Despite all of the effort and the success of Abu Simbel some sites were lost.
Another foreseen negative consequence was the displacement of people living in the areas that would be submerged by Lake Nasser. This massive resettlement effort was a significant social cost that was anticipated and factored into the project's planning, leading to the creation of new cities and towns like "New Nubia" in Egypt and New Wadi Halfa in Sudan.
The reduction of soil fertility in the Nile Delta due to the trapping of the Nile's nutrient-rich silt behind the dam was also anticipated. For millennia, the annual floods had deposited an average of 140 million cubic meters per year of silt across the Nile valley, replenishing the soil and flushing out excessive salts. The dam's construction halted this natural fertilization process, creating an increased reliance on artificial fertilizers. The accumulation of sediments in the reservoir itself, leading to a gradual decrease in storage capacity over time, was another predicted issue. While most sediment accumulation was initially observed in the southern stretches of Lake Nasser, the long-term implications for the dam's effectiveness were recognized. The Egyptian government has considered dredging the sediment to create new arable lands, but that too is an enormous project without the obvious benefits of creating Lake Nasser.
But for all of the work done to anticipate positive and negative effects, one of the most significant unanticipated consequences that later emerged and caused much debate was the impact on the prevalence of schistosomiasis.
While epidemiologists and journalists predicted a potential increase due to the creation of ideal breeding conditions for snails, the actual disease trajectory was more complex.
Some studies initially suggested an increase in certain areas, but later evidence indicated an overall decrease in schistosomiasis prevalence in Egypt since the dam’s construction. This decrease is attributed to ecological changes favoring one kind of snail (the Biomphalaria snails, hosts of S. mansoni, over Bulinus snails, hosts of S. haematobium), as well as the implementation of national control programs involving mass drug administration with praziquantel and mollusciciding. Overall, in the face of a huge public health disaster, the Egyptian government's massive proactive public health interventions played a crucial role in reducing the possibility of a schistosomiasis epidemic. They anticipated the probable outcome and took defensive measures.
Other significant unanticipated negative consequences included coastal erosion along the Egyptian Mediterranean Sea. Because the dam significantly reduced the amount of sediment carried by the Nile to the coast, leading to the retreat of the Nile Delta shoreline and threatening communities and agricultural land. The collapse of the Mediterranean sardine fishery off Egypt's coast was also linked to the trapping of nutrients behind the dam, disrupting the marine food web. Soil salinization and waterlogging in agricultural lands became problems due to the shift to perennial irrigation without the natural flushing action of the annual floods and inadequate drainage systems. Changes in the downstream riverbed due to the clearer water released from the dam also affected bridge foundations and riverbank stability. Furthermore, increased algal growth in the Nile, fueled by clearer water and fertilizer runoff, necessitated more intensive and costly water treatment.
Overall, the decision to build the Aswan High Dam was a strategic one driven by Egypt's urgent need for water security, hydroelectric power, and increased agricultural production to support its growing population and achieve industrialization. The Egyptian government viewed the dam as central to the nation's progress and did a lot of work to anticipate the negative consequences, but they missed a few.
Overall environmental and health impacts, such as coastal erosion and the complex changes in schistosomiasis prevalence, were either underestimated, unanticipated, or unfolded in ways that required subsequent interventions. The story of the Aswan High Dam serves as a powerful example of the intricate tradeoffs involved in large-scale engineering projects and the importance of considering both the intended and unintended consequences. The Egyptian government, while prioritizing the dam's crucial benefits, had to grapple with and adapt to the unfolding environmental and social impacts over the subsequent decades. That’s true for many projects, from landscape-altering projects (the AHD) to smaller ones that seem simple to execute.
But that’s not always the case—in our next chapter we’ll talk about much smaller projects with much simpler environments. Cases where the consequences really should have been anticipated, but somehow, someway, were not.
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